It’s hard to imagine that in NIRCA’s eleventh National XC Championship there could still be something that has never happened before. But when not a single top ten finisher from the previous year is returning, that is certainly a first for the NIRCA women’s field. Thus the 2016 individual title looks to be anybody’s game. And with only eight of the top 30 medal winners back, the awards podium in Hershey will be filled with new names and faces.

The highest returning finisher from a season ago is not only one of the leading contenders based on previous year’s results but also on her recent performance at the Great Plains Regional. Missouri’s Caitlin Hammons (11^th in 2015) cruised to a comfortable 42 second win, covering the Ames, IA course in 23:03. The next three finishers in the Great Plains will not be making the trip to Nationals, leaving Hammons as the region’s best hope for an individual champion. Minnesota’s Evelyn Frenz (5^th at Great Plains) was the next best finisher making the trip, running 24:18.

 

The Great Lakes Region however features a number of runners who medaled in Lexington and are all coming off very good regional meet performances. That list of contenders starts with the 2016 Great Lakes champ Emily Wagoner from Indiana, who picked up a win in Shelbyville with a fast 22:17. Wagoner was 16^th last year and only lost once in NIRCA competition this fall, to Central Michigan’s Taylor Augillon at the MC5 early on. Augillon will not be competing on Saturday.

Michigan State has two returning medal winners and a third realistic hope for an individual champion. Erin Zimmer and Nicole Mosteller were 12^th and 25^th last year and both are back. Zimmer has been dominating this season, coming off a runner-up finish to Wagoner at the Great Lakes Regional, running 22:36. Right behind her at Regionals, and all year actually, is Tarah Thompson who is another sub-23 runner for the Spartans. Thompson was 62^nd in Lexington and 54^th in East Lansing in 2014 but clearly much improved this year.

Michigan’s Colleen Conroy is another midwest runner who has title aspirations. After a 94^th place finish in 2015, she has made big strides this season, placing fourth at Great Lakes in 22:59.

Elizabeth Buckley comes in as the Mid Atlantic Regional champ and will be making her first appearance at NIRCA Nationals. The Virginia Tech star pulled away from the field in Bethlehem, PA and won convincingly in 22:24, well ahead of runner-up Roxanne Ramirez from Delaware (22:46) and Hookie teammate Amy Edgemond (22:48), both of whom will also be in the mix. The Penn State duo of Noemie Noullet and Ariane Abadi finished fourth and fifth at Mid Atlantics and can make a push for the individual title. Noullet was 26^th last year and while Abadi didn’t medal in 2015, she was 11^th at 2014 Nationals. Both runners have the added incentive of scoring low points for their team.

Possibly the favorite to represent the Mid Atlantic Region in the chase for an individual title is a familiar name in NIRCA circles, though she won’t show up on the regional meet results. University of Pennsylvania grad student Liz Novack has a resume full of accolades at two different schools. As an undergrad at Penn State she was an All-American, finishing as high as 10^th at the 2012 National meet. While at UPenn, Novack was the 2015 Mid Atlantic runner-up but has yet to compete at a National meet for the Quakers, until this Saturday. Earlier this year she won the Princeton Invitational by almost a minute over Penn State’s Abadi.

 Dana Fry from Oregon is the third highest returning finisher in this race, having placed 13^th a year ago. Fry did not compete at the Pacific Regional but most recently ran a 23:57 6k on what appeared to be a difficult course and a 19:28 5k in early October. Also out of the Pacific Region is UC Davis’s Sally Keating. Just 47^th a year ago, Keating recently blew away the field at the Pacific Regional at Crystal Springs, winning in a NIRCA-best 21:43. If she can duplicate that effort in Hershey, the west coast may have its first ever women’s champion. Stanford’s Amia Nash is the next best finisher from the region who is making the cross-country trek to Hershey, having run 23:32.

The Southeast Region accounts for the final two medal winners from a year ago with North Carolina State’s Carmen Davis and UNC’s Caroline Jennings. Davis was fifth at Regionals in 24:01 while Jennings did not compete in the meet but will be at Nationals along with teammate Bridget Sullivan. Earlier this year, Jennings recorded an 18:24 5k while Sullivan ran an 18:05 in that same meet.

Making her Nationals debut, and trying to steal the show in her first time here, is Duke’s Katelyn McCracken. She obliterated the field at the Southeast Regional to win in 23:08, won the NC State Invite with a 19:24 5k and also posted an 18:15 5k at UNC’s Invite. McCracken will be one to keep an eye on. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

PREDICTION: It is a wide open field this year but expect a veteran runner to take the title. UPenn’s Liz Novack surges on the rolling hills for the win while Sally Keating from UC Davis nabs the silver. Mizzou’s Caitlin Hammons retains her All-American status, this time moving up to third place in the nation.
Disclaimer: Previews and predictions are the opinion of one NIRCA board member who tracks race results from NIRCA member clubs throughout the Fall season. These previews and race predictions do not necessarily represent the view or stance of the Association’s Board or membership and should be viewed as educated guesses to generate excitement and conversation for the upcoming National Championship weekend! Please enjoy at your own risk.

Highest Returning Finishers from 2015
Caitlin Hammons, Missouri, 11^th
Erin Zimmer, Michigan State, 12^th
Dana Fry, Oregon, 13^th
Emily Wagoner, Indiana, 16^th
Nicole Mosteller, Michigan State, 25^th
Noemi Noullet, Penn State, 26^th
Carmen Davis, North Carolina State, 28^th
Caroline Jennings, North Carolina, 29^th

NIRCA Women’s National Champions (2006-2015)

Year	Champion	College/University	Time	Course
2015	Kaitlyn Johnson	Georgetown	22:00	Masterson Station Park, Lexington, KY
2014	Cara Donohue	Minnesota	22:24	Forest Akers Course, East Lansing, MI
2013	Betsy Suda	Florida	22:22	Parkview XC Course, Hershey, PA
2012	Becky Boyle	Indiana	22:31	Parkview XC Course, Hershey, PA
2011	Betsy Suda	Florida	21:27	McAlpine Creek Park, Charlotte, NC
2010	Danelle Woods	Illinois	21:54	IU XC Course, Bloomington, IN
2009	Lauren Philbrook	Penn State	21:59	Eagle Crest Golf Course, Ypsilanti, MI
2008	Kelsey Armstrong	Clemson	22:30	Penn State Golf Course, University Park, PA
2007	Jen Laser	Indiana	23:45	IU XC Course, Bloomington, IN
2006	Ruth Mick	Penn State	22:35	Lock Haven XC Course, Lock Haven, PA

2016 NIRCA Women’s Regional Champions

Region	Champion	College/University	Time
Great Plain	Caitlin Hammons	Missouri	23:03
Great Lakes	Emily Wagoner	Indiana	22:17
Mid Atlantic	Elizabeth Buckley	Virginia Tech	22:24
Southeast	Katelyn McCracken	Duke	23:08
Northeast	Annie Geasa	Boston Univ.	24:55
Pacific	Sally Keating	UC Davis	21:43

All-Time Top 25 6k Performances at NIRCA XC Nationals

1	Betsy Suda	Florida	21:27	McAlpine Creek Park	2011
2	Becky Boyle	Indiana	21:42	McAlpine Creek Park	2011
3	Danelle Woods	Illinois	21:54	Indiana XC Course	2010
4	Lauren Philbrook	Penn State	21:59	Eagle Crest Golf Course	2009
5	Kaitlyn Johnson	Georgetown	22:00	Masterson Station Park	2015
6	Cassi Knight	Penn State	22:04	Indiana XC Course	2010
7	Lauren Philbrook	Penn State	22:13	Indiana XC Course	2010
8	Kristen Mohrer	Oregon	22:15	Eagle Crest Golf Course	2009
9	Megan  Mocogni	Illinois	22:21	Masterson Station Park	2015
10	Betsy Suda	Florida	22:22	Hershey Parkview Course	2013
10	Mollie Pozzolo	Michigan	22:22	McAlpine Creek Park	2011
12	Ganna Bowen	North Carolina	22:23	McAlpine Creek Park	2011
13	Cara Donohue	Minnesota	22:24	Forest Akers Golf Course	2014
14	Kristen Mohrer	Oregon	22:25	Indiana XC Course	2010
15	Maddie Stark	Penn State	22:26	Eagle Crest Golf Course	2009
16	Emma Grimes	Illinois	22:29	Forest Akers Golf Course	2014
17	Kelsey Armstrong	Clemson	22:30	Penn State Golf Course	2008
18	Sarah Brewer	Michigan	22:31	Eagle Crest Golf Course	2009
18	Becky Boyle	Indiana	22:31	Hershey Parkview Course	2012
20	Amanda Zamora	Illinois	22:32	McAlpine Creek Park	2011
20	Julianne Schnepp	Penn State	22:32	Indiana XC Course	2010
20	Rachel White	Michigan	22:32	Penn State Golf Course	2008
23	Michaela Alamillo	Oregon	22:33	McAlpine Creek Park	2011
24	Ruth Mick	Penn State	22:35	Lockhaven XC Course	2006
24	Cara Donohue	Minnesota	22:35	McAlpine Creek Park	2011

Tommy Otterbine, NIRCA

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